Let's start this from the top. T-Mobile UK has had its name plastered all over the business pages of late.. Rumour is rife that they're to sell out or merge in some way since a spokesman from the their parent company, Deutsche Telekom, expressed disappointment at the upcoming results in the UK market. Predications are of a writedown of 1.8bn euros and he said:
"The British market is highly competitive and has comparably low margins. In our view consolidation is a means to take excess capabilities out of the market. Nothing is unthinkable on our side."
Now, on the one hand, this is fantastic non-committal business speak but at the same time it's not the kind of talk you'd come out with if you weren't planning on taking some kind of action. So exactly what is the plan? Well, they could reduce the investment in the UK branch of T-Mobile but then that'll only cause an equally large loss of market share and profit. So, quite rightly, all the talk is of merger or takeover or somewhere in between. The question is, with or by whom?
3
The most obvious candidates are the struggling UK networks with 3 presumably top of the list. 3 seems to have the money, the ambition, the plan, the drive and, to put it bluntly, the bollocks to pick up T-Mobile with whom they already share a network. Now, if they took hold of T-Mobile's huge customer base too, then that old problem of termination charges wouldn't be quite the barrier it's proved so long to be.
Orange
Orange has lost its way. From a consumer point of view, they've done nothing interesting since Orange Wednesdays and that fashionable network image they had in the 90s has all but vanished. All we're left with is a few cinema adverts and bunch of expensive animal tariffs that no one understands or particularly wants to get involved with.
They don't do a lot in the way of gutsy exclusive handsets deals and, although it'd be just the tonic to get them back on their feet, I can't see them getting involved. Hard to tell whether it's a question of not having the cash to play with or the lack of foresight but it's high time Orange made a move of some sort.
Virgin Mobile
Surely this is the moment for the third wheel of the UK networks? There hasn't been any room for a sixth operator and if Branson is serious about this foray into telephony then here's an easy way to finally get a foothold, but does he, or various branches of his media empire, have the cash to back it up? I think not.
O2 & Vodafone
The two biggest kids in the park aren't probably so much interested in what T-Mobile would offer them as what it would take away from the other players if they controlled it too.
Part of me feels that Vodafone is too aloof as an operator to get involved and it's questionable whether O2 has the capital after the extensive market push in the last five years. They'd probably love a piece of T-Mobile. They'd pretty much have the top tariffs and many of the handsets in the country completely sewn up but, as I say, one wonders how much cash they've got left after sponsoring the Dome amongst other marketing spending.
UK ISPs
Mobile broadband is a fantastically growth area at the moment and T-Mobile has been doing an excellent job of getting their 3G solutions out there in the shape of netbooks and dongles. It actually represents quite a shame that DT is looking to sell at all considering their UK department has such a progressive attitude to data, price plans, handsets, offers and advertising but thems the breaks, unfortunately.
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