You can treat many analyst predictions with a pinch of salt, but at least they’re trying to figure out how fast technologies will take off (and who stands to trouser the revenues). Screen Digest has just released a report predicting that by 2011, online TV will be generating £181 million of revenues here.
That includes catch-up and on-demand services from the big broadcasters, but also online telly firms like YouTube and Joost (pictured), and download services like Apple’s iTunes. It specifically says that the tradiitonal broadcasters will be threatened by the rise of these new online firms, too. If I was ITV, I’d be trying to buy Joost right now.
“The UK online TV market will be increasingly fragmented, with the new entrants trapping considerable market share,” says Arash Amel, senior analyst at Screen Digest.
“The threats and opportunities for traditional broadcast networks and pay-TV platforms is clear. They must adapt their online strategies quickly and efficiently, whether it is focusing on maximizing the potential of video offered through their own websites and online outlets, or co-operating with the new platforms to syndicate as widely as possible in order to tap significant additional revenue.”
Meanwhile, the same report predicts that music will be the largest entertainment market in terms of online distribution, generating £285.6 million of revenue (or, if you break that down: 191 million single tracks, and 21 million albums).
The trouble with predicting the growth of online music is that there are so many different business models. It’s possible that by 2011, many music fans will be getting tunes for free, with artists and labels making money by other means. Or we’ll all be buying vinyl in a burst of retro fever, of course.
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